Brian's NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Zach's NCAA Tournament Bracket

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Bracket Projection Performance

I correctly picked 31 out of 34 at large teams this year. I'm slightly disappointed as I expected to get 33 or 34 correct.

Projected in but did not get in: New Mexico, Dayton, Illinois State.
Projected out but got in: Oregon, Villanova, Kentucky.

Seed and region correct:

1. North Carolina (1-East)
2. Coppin State (16-East)
3. Memphis (1-South)
4. Marquette (6-South)
5. Stanford (3-South)
6. Austin Peay (15-South)
7. Kansas (1-Midwest)
8. Clemson (5-Midwest)
9. UCLA (1-West)
10. Xavier (3-West)
11. Duke (2-West)
12. Texas A&M (9-West)

Seed correct:

1. Brigham Young (8)
2. Texas (2)
3. Mississippi Valley State (16)
4. San Diego (13)
5. Cornell (14)
6. UMBC (15)
7. Tennessee (2)
8. Pittsburgh (4)
9. West Virginia (7)
10. Mount St. Mary's (16)
11. Belmont (15)
12. Notre Dame (5)
13. Texas-Arlington (16)
14. Oral Roberts (13)
15. Cal State Fullerton (14)

Total: 27/65 (41.5%) of teams received the seed they were projected to get.

Teams within one seed: (projected/actual)

1. Connecticut (5/4)
2. Georgetown (3/2)
3. USC (7/6)
4. South Alabama (11/10)
5. St. Joe's (10/11)
6. Louisville (4/3)
7. UNLV (7/8)
8. American (16/15)
9. Boise State (13/14)
10. Temple (11/12)
11. Winthrop (14/13)
12. Baylor (10/11)
13. Wisconsin (2/3)
14. Mississippi State (9/8)
15. George Mason (11/12)
16. Siena (14/13)
17. Gonzaga (8/7)
18. Michigan State (6/5)
19. Davidson (11/10)
20. Kent State (10/9)
21. Portland State (15/16)

21/65 = 32.3%

48/65 (73.8%) of the teams received a seed exactly as or one different than they were projected to.

Teams within two seeds: (projected/actual)

1. Purdue (4/6)
2. Vanderbilt (6/4)
3. Kansas State (9/11)
4. Oklahoma (8/6)
5. Miami (9/7)
6. St. Mary's (8/10)
7. Washington State (6/4)
8. Drake (3/5)
9. Arizona (12/10)
10. Western Kentucky (10/12)
11. Arkansas (7/9)
12. Georgia (12/14)

12/65 = 18.5%

Teams three or more seeds different: (projected/actual)

1. Indiana (5/8)
2. Butler (4/7)

2/65 = 3%

Correct matchups:

North Carolina vs. play-in winner
Louisville vs. Boise State

FINAL BRACKETOLOGY

Through games of March 16.

Last four IN: New Mexico, Dayton, Arizona, Illinois State.
Last four OUT: Oregon, Massachusetts, Villanova, Ohio State.
Next four OUT: Kentucky, Arizona State, Mississippi, Virginia Commonwealth.

Conference Breakdown: Big East (7), Big 12 (6), Pac 10 (5), SEC (5), ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Atlantic 10 (4), Mountain West (3), West Coast (3), Missouri Valley (2), Sun Belt (2).

All other leagues (20): one bid.

* indicates automatic bid.

East Region (Charlotte, NC):

(1) North Carolina* vs. (16) Mississippi Valley State*/Coppin State* (play-in game)
(8) Brigham Young vs. (9) Kansas State
(5) Connecticut vs. (12) Illinois State
(4) Purdue vs. (13) San Diego*
(6) Vanderbilt vs. (11) South Alabama
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Cornell*
(7) USC vs. (10) St. Joe’s
(2) Texas vs. (15) Maryland-Baltimore County*

South Region (Houston, TX):

(1) Memphis* vs. (16) American*
(8) Oklahoma vs. (9) Miami
(5) Indiana vs. (12) Dayton
(4) Louisville vs. (13) Boise State*
(6) Marquette vs. (11) Temple*
(3) Stanford vs. (14) Winthrop*
(7) UNLV* vs. (10) Baylor
(2) Tennessee vs. (15) Austin Peay*

Midwest Region (Detroit, MI):

(1) Kansas* vs. (16) Mount St. Mary’s*
(8) St. Mary’s vs. (9) Mississippi State
(5) Clemson vs. (12) Arizona
(4) Pittsburgh* vs. (13) New Mexico
(6) Washington State vs. (11) George Mason*
(3) Drake* vs. (14) Siena*
(7) West Virginia vs. (10) Western Kentucky*
(2) Wisconsin* vs. (15) Belmont*

West Region (Phoenix, AZ):

(1) UCLA* vs. (16) Texas-Arlington*
(8) Gonzaga vs. (9) Texas A&M
(5) Notre Dame vs. (12) Georgia*
(4) Butler* vs. (13) Oral Roberts*
(6) Michigan State vs. (11) Davidson*
(3) Xavier vs. (14) Cal State Fullerton*
(7) Arkansas vs. (10) Kent State*
(2) Duke vs. (15) Portland State*

Conference Tournament Brackets

Zach's conference tournament brackets: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pqPs2SxGUYQvUWSTCxT1SPA

Brian's conference tournament brackets: http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pqPs2SxGUYQs6cKhlbJlPCQ

Brian wins 77 to 65.

March 12 Bracketology

Through games of March 11.
Next (final) update: March 16.

Last four IN: Oregon, Massachusetts, Syracuse, New Mexico.
Last four OUT: Ohio State, Arizona State, Virginia Commonwealth, UAB.
Next four OUT: Dayton, St. Joe’s, Villanova, Florida.

Conference Breakdown: Big East (8), Pac 10 (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), ACC (4), Big Ten (4), Mountain West (3), West Coast (3), Atlantic 10 (2), Missouri Valley (2), Sun Belt (2).

All other leagues (20): one bid.

* indicates automatic bid.

NOTE: Syracuse’s true seed was 12 and Kentucky’s was 11. They had to be changed for bracketing purposes.

East Region (Charlotte, NC):

(1) North Carolina* vs. (16) Sacred Heart*/Alabama State* (play-in game)
(8) Pittsburgh vs. (9) Texas A&M
(5) Drake* vs. (12) Oregon
(4) Purdue vs. (13) George Mason*
(6) Brigham Young* vs. (11) Western Kentucky*
(3) Stanford vs. (14) San Diego*
(7) Kansas State vs. (10) Arkansas
(2) Georgetown vs. (15) Winthrop*

South Region (Houston, TX):

(1) Memphis* vs. (16) UMBC*
(8) St. Mary’s vs. (9) Baylor
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) New Mexico
(4) Connecticut vs. (13) Oral Roberts*
(6) Michigan State vs. (11) Kent State*
(3) Louisville* vs. (14) UC-Santa Barbara*
(7) USC vs. (10) Davidson*
(2) Duke vs. (15) Belmont*

Midwest Region (Detroit, MI):

(1) Tennessee* vs. (16) Morgan State*
(8) UNLV vs. (9) Oklahoma
(5) Washington State vs. (12) Massachusetts
(4) Notre Dame vs. (13) Cornell*
(6) Clemson vs. (11) Syracuse
(3) Wisconsin* vs. (14) Siena*
(7) Gonzaga vs. (10) Illinois State
(2) Kansas* vs. (15) Austin Peay*

West Region (Phoenix, AZ):

(1) UCLA* vs. (16) American*
(8) West Virginia vs. (9) Miami
(5) Indiana vs. (12) Kentucky
(4) Butler* vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin*
(6) Marquette vs. (11) South Alabama
(3) Xavier* vs. (14) Boise State*
(7) Mississippi State vs. (10) Arizona
(2) Texas vs. (15) Portland State*

Zach and Brian's Top 25

Zach:

1. North Carolina (1)
2. Kansas (5)
3. Tennessee (2)
4. Memphis (3)
5. UCLA (4)
6. Texas (10)
7. Duke (6)
8. Wisconsin (8)
9. Georgetown (13)
10. Stanford (7)
11. Louisville (9)
12. Connecticut (11)
13. Notre Dame (14)
14. Drake (20)
15. Purdue (12)
16. Xavier (16)
17. Butler (22)
18. Michigan State (15)
19. Gonzaga (21)
20. Washington State (24)
21. Vanderbilt (17)
22. Indiana (18)
23. Western Kentucky (NR)
24. Brigham Young (NR)
25. Clemson (19)

New additions: #23 Western Kentucky, #24 BYU.
Also considered: Nobody.
Dropped from rankings: #23 Marquette, #25 Mississippi State.

Brian:

1. North Carolina (1)
2. Kansas (4)
3. Memphis (3)
4. UCLA (2)
5. Tennessee (5)
6. Texas (8)
7. Wisconsin (9)
8. Louisville (7)
9. Georgetown (14)
10. Duke (10)
11. Stanford (6)
12. Purdue (11)
13. Connecticut (12)
14. Notre Dame (16)
15. Butler (19)
16. Xavier (13)
17. Michigan State (15)
18. Washington State (20)
19. Drake (23)
20. Marquette (17)
21. Vanderbilt (21)
22. Indiana (18)
23. South Alabama (24)
24. Davidson (25)
25. Clemson (22)

New additions: None.
Dropped from rankings: None.
Also considered: BYU, Mississippi State, USC, Gonzaga.

Sunday's Picks

Brian's Picks: Season Record: 480-474-26

KENTUCKY (-2.5) over Florida- WIN
Michigan State (+1) over OHIO STATE- LOSS
DePaul (+11) over PITTSBURGH- LOSS
Virginia Tech (+10.5) over CLEMSON- WIN
South Carolina (+16.5) over TENNESSEE- LOSS
SETON HALL (-9) over Rutgers- LOSS
PENN STATE (+8.5) over Indiana- WIN
NEBRASKA (-10) over Colorado- WIN
TEXAS (-11.5) over Oklahoma State- LOSS
Purdue (-5) over MICHIGAN- WIN
CONNECTICUT (-12.5) over Cincinnati- WIN
AKRON (-3.5) over Kent State- LOSS
VIRGINIA (-2) over Maryland- WIN

Big East Model: Season Record: 106-38

PITTSBURGH (38.088) over DePaul (31.702)- WIN
SETON HALL (34.706) over Rutgers (29.309)- LOSS
CONNECTICUT (40.819) over Cincinnati (32.929)- WIN

Saturday's Picks

Brian's Picks: Season Record: 473-468-26

Louisville (+4) over GEORGETOWN- WIN
ST. JOHN'S (+9) over West Virginia- PUSH
FLORIDA STATE (-2) over Miami- WIN
WAKE FOREST (-6) over NC State- WIN
ILLINOIS (-4.5) over Minnesota- WIN
UAB (+14.5) over MEMPHIS- LOSS
Baylor (+1.5) over TEXAS TECH- WIN
DAYTON (-2.5) over St. Joe's- WIN
Stanford (PK) over USC- LOSS
Vanderbilt (PK) over ALABAMA- LOSS
NORTHWESTERN (+13.5) over Wisconsin- WIN
BOSTON COLLEGE (-2) over Georgia Tech- LOSS
OKLAHOMA (-7) over Missouri- WIN
UCLA (-16) over California- LOSS
GEORGIA (-1.5) over Mississippi- LOSS
MISSISSIPPI STATE (-11.5) over LSU- LOSS
UNLV (-7) over Utah- PUSH
CONNECTICUT (-13) over Cincinnati- postponed
Kansas State (-4) over IOWA STATE- PUSH
SYRACUSE (PK) over Marquette- WIN
Kansas (-5) over TEXAS A&M- WIN
Arizona State (-11) over OREGON STATE- WIN
Auburn (+13) over ARKANSAS- PUSH
Charlotte (+6.5) over RHODE ISLAND- WIN
Notre Dame (-5.5) over SOUTH FLORIDA- WIN
PROVIDENCE (-1.5) over Villanova- LOSS
WASHINGTON STATE (-9) over Washington- LOSS
North Carolina (+1.5) over DUKE- WIN
UTEP (+2) over Houston- WIN
OREGON (-1.5) over Arizona- WIN

Big East Model: Season Record: 104-37

GEORGETOWN (40.157) over Louisville (38.994)- WIN
West Virginia (35.510) over ST. JOHN'S (31.780)- WIN
Notre Dame (37.548) over SOUTH FLORIDA (31.721)- WIN
SYRACUSE (38.098) over Marquette (36.113)- WIN
CONNECTICUT (40.839) over Cincinnati (32.938)- postponed
PROVIDENCE (34.915) over Villanova (33.547)- LOSS

Thursday's Picks

Brian's Picks: Season Record: 457-459-22

Clemson (-2) over GEORGIA TECH- LOSS
Connecticut (-4.5) over PROVIDENCE- LOSS
DePaul (+5.5) over CINCINNATI- WIN
Arizona State (+5) over OREGON- LOSS
Arizona (-11.5) over OREGON STATE- WIN
Michigan State (PK) over ILLINOIS- WIN
Xavier (-2) over ST. JOE'S- LOSS
USC (-8) over California- LOSS
Stanford (+8.5) over UCLA- LOSS

Big East Model: Season Record: 100-36

CINCINNATI (34.772) over DePaul (31.536)- LOSS
Connecticut (39.679) over PROVIDENCE (34.322)- LOSS

Wednesday's Picks

Brian's Picks: Season Record: 454-453-22

Minnesota (+8.5) over INDIANA- LOSS
Kentucky (+2) over SOUTH CAROLINA- WIN
Duke (-5.5) over VIRGINIA- WIN
Syracuse (-2.5) over SETON HALL- WIN
Boston College (+8.5) over MIAMI- LOSS
St. John's (+15.5) over NOTRE DAME- WIN
South Florida (+9.5) over VILLANOVA- LOSS
Iowa State (+10.5) over MISSOURI- WIN
VANDERBILT (-3.5) over Mississippi State- LOSS
AUBURN (-3) over Georgia- LOSS
LSU (-2.5) over Alabama- WIN
OKLAHOMA STATE (-4) over Oklahoma- LOSS
Penn State (+18.5) over WISCONSIN- LOSS
Tennessee (-3) over FLORIDA- PUSH
BAYLOR (-1.5) over Texas A&M- LOSS

Big East Model: Season Record: 100-34

Syracuse (35.040) over SETON HALL (34.724)- WIN
NOTRE DAME (39.154) over St. John's (30.848)- WIN
VILLANOVA (35.668) over South Florida (30.934)- WIN

Tuesday's Picks

Brian's Picks: Season Record: 448-445-21

VIRGINIA TECH (-5.5) over Wake Forest- WIN
Purdue (+2) over OHIO STATE- LOSS
TEXAS (-12.5) over Nebraska- LOSS
NORTH CAROLINA (-16) over Florida State- LOSS
MISSISSIPPI (-2) over Arkansas- WIN
UNLV (+6) over NEW MEXICO- LOSS
KANSAS STATE (-16) over Colorado- LOSS
NORTHWESTERN (-1.5) over Iowa- LOSS

March 4 Bracketology

Through games of March 3.
Next update: March 11.

Last four IN: New Mexico, Florida, UAB, Virginia Tech.
Last four OUT: St. Joe’s, Syracuse, Houston, Dayton.
Next four OUT: Rhode Island, Villanova, Kentucky, Ohio State.

Conference Breakdown: Big East (7), Pac 10 (6), ACC (6), Big 12 (6), SEC (5), Big Ten (4), Mountain West (3), Atlantic 10 (2), West Coast (2), Conference USA (2), Missouri Valley (2).

All other leagues (20): one bid.

* indicates automatic bid.

East Region (Charlotte, NC):

(1) North Carolina* vs. (16) Alabama State*/Morgan State* (play-in winner)
(8) West Virginia vs. (9) Arizona State
(5) Vanderbilt vs. (12) New Mexico
(4) Purdue vs. (13) Davidson*
(6) Washington State vs. (11) Maryland
(3) Louisville* vs. (14) Siena*
(7) St. Mary’s vs. (10) Kansas State
(2) Xavier* vs. (15) Austin Peay*

South Region (Houston, TX):

(1) Tennessee* vs. (16) Maryland-Baltimore County*
(8) South Alabama* vs. (9) Baylor
(5) Michigan State vs. (12) UAB
(4) Connecticut vs. (13) Stephen F. Austin*
(6) Clemson vs. (11) Illinois State
(3) Stanford vs. (14) American*
(7) Mississippi State vs. (10) Massachusetts
(2) Texas vs. (15) Belmont*

Midwest Region (Detroit, MI):

(1) Memphis* vs. (16) UNC-Asheville*
(8) UNLV vs. (9) Oklahoma
(5) Drake* vs. (12) Virginia Tech
(4) Notre Dame vs. (13) Kent State*
(6) Marquette vs. (11) Virginia Commonwealth*
(3) Wisconsin* vs. (14) Cornell*
(7) USC vs. (10) Arkansas
(2) Kansas* vs. (15) Cal State Northridge*

West Region (Phoenix, AZ):

(1) UCLA* vs. (16) Robert Morris*
(8) Pittsburgh vs. (9) Miami
(5) Indiana vs. (12) Florida
(4) Butler* vs. (13) Oral Roberts*
(6) BYU* vs. (11) Arizona
(3) Georgetown vs. (14) Boise State*
(7) Gonzaga* vs. (10) Texas A&M
(2) Duke vs. (15) Portland State*

Monday's Picks

Brian's Picks: Season Record: 446-439-21

Pittsburgh (+6) over WEST VIRGINIA- LOSS
GEORGIA TECH (-4.5) over Virginia- LOSS
Texas Tech (+19.5) over KANSAS- LOSS

Big East Model: Season Record: 97-34

WEST VIRGINIA (36.982) over Pittsburgh (36.429)- WIN

Zach and Brian's Top 25

Zach:

1. North Carolina (3)
2. Tennessee (1)
3. Memphis (2)
4. UCLA (4)
5. Kansas (7)
6. Duke (6)
7. Stanford (8)
8. Wisconsin (10)
9. Louisville (11)
10. Texas (5)
11. Connecticut (10)
12. Purdue (12)
13. Georgetown (15)
14. Notre Dame (17)
15. Michigan State (14)
16. Xavier (18)
17. Vanderbilt (20)
18. Indiana (13)
19. Clemson (24)
20. Drake (16)
21. Gonzaga (25)
22. Butler (23)
23. Marquette (21)
24. Washington State (22)
25. Mississippi State (NR)

New additions: Mississippi State.
Dropped from rankings: #19 Kansas State.
Also considered: Western Kentucky, South Alabama, BYU, Davidson.

Brian:

1. North Carolina (2)
2. UCLA (5)
3. Memphis (3)
4. Kansas (8)
5. Tennessee (1)
6. Stanford (6)
7. Louisville (7)
8. Texas (4)
9. Wisconsin (10)
10. Duke (9)
11. Purdue (13)
12. Connecticut (12)
13. Xavier (14)
14. Georgetown (16)
15. Michigan State (15)
16. Notre Dame (17)
17. Marquette (18)
18. Indiana (11)
19. Butler (22)
20. Washington State (19)
21. Vanderbilt (21)
22. Clemson (24)
23. Drake (20)
24. South Alabama (25)
25. Davidson (NR)

New additions: Davidson.
Dropped from rankings: #23 Kansas State.
Also considered: BYU, Gonzaga, Mississippi State.

Sunday's Picks

Brian's Picks: Season Record: 446-436-21

CINCINNATI (-4.5) over Providence- LOSS
TENNESSEE (-15) over Kentucky- LOSS
Notre Dame (-5.5) over DEPAUL- WIN
LSU (-3.5) over Georgia- WIN
Indiana (+5.5) over MICHIGAN STATE- LOSS
UCLA (-5) over ARIZONA- LOSS
LOUISVILLE (-11.5) over Villanova- WIN
Clemson (+1.5) over MARYLAND- WIN
OREGON STATE (+11) over Oregon- LOSS

Big East Model: Season Record: 96-34

CINCINNATI (35.577) over Providence (32.368)- LOSS
Notre Dame (37.218) over DEPAUL (33.504)- WIN
LOUISVILLE (40.964) over Villanova (33.658)- WIN

Saturday's Picks

Brian's Picks: Season Record: 442-431-21

Duke (-10.5) over NC STATE- LOSS
SYRACUSE (-2.5) over Pittsburgh- LOSS
CONNECTICUT (-4.5) over West Virginia- WIN
Nebraska (+5) over OKLAHOMA STATE- LOSS
MIAMI (-6.5) over Virginia- LOSS
OKLAHOMA (-2) over Texas A&M- WIN
Northwestern (+15.5) over PURDUE- LOSS
MARQUETTE (-3) over Georgetown- LOSS
Alabama (+6) over MISSISSIPPI- WIN
Wake Forest (+4.5) over GEORGIA TECH- LOSS
North Carolina (-11) over BOSTON COLLEGE- LOSS
Washington State (+4.5) over STANFORD- LOSS
BAYLOR (-7) over Missouri- WIN
Texas (-5.5) over TEXAS TECH- LOSS
FLORIDA (-4) over Mississippi State- LOSS
Seton Hall (+1.5) over ST. JOHN'S- LOSS
MINNESOTA (-3) over Ohio State- WIN
Vanderbilt (+5) over ARKANSAS- PUSH
CALIFORNIA (-4.5) over Washington- LOSS
AUBURN (-2.5) over South Carolina- LOSS
COLORADO (-3) over Iowa State- WIN
Southern California (+1.5) over ARIZONA STATE- LOSS
IOWA (PK) over Illinois- LOSS
RUTGERS (-1.5) over South Florida- LOSS
GONZAGA (-6.5) over St. Mary's- WIN
PENN STATE (-2.5) over Michigan- WIN
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS (-5.5) over Illinois State- LOSS
Kansas State (+13) over KANSAS- LOSS

Big East Model: Season Record: 94-33

CONNECTICUT (41.747) over West Virginia (35.595)- WIN
SYRACUSE (37.539) over Pittsburgh (36.023)- LOSS
MARQUETTE (38.419) over Georgetown (37.858)- LOSS
Seton Hall (33.144) over ST. JOHN'S (31.401)- LOSS
South Florida (31.288) over RUTGERS (30.855)- WIN