Big East Frontcourt Statistical Analysis
The frontcourt model takes into account 19% points per game, 18% field goal percentage, 17% rebounds per game, 11% turnovers, 10% free throw percentage, 8% blocks per game, 8% assists per game, 5% three point percentage, and 4% steals per game. For players who don't shoot three pointers, their field goal percentage was weighted at 21% and their free throw percentage was weighted at 12%.
Significantly injured players and those who average less than 10 minutes per game were not included.
Frontcourt Player Rankings (raw):
1. Brian Laing, Seton Hall (5.041)
2. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame (4.951)
3. Donte Greene, Syracuse (4.824)
4. Sam Young, Pittsburgh (4.669)
5. Kentrell Gransberry, South Florida (4.537)
6. Joe Alexander, West Virginia (4.528)
7. DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh (4.413)
8. Rob Kurz, Notre Dame (4.346)
9. J.R. Inman, Rutgers (4.342)
10. Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut (4.334)
11. Arinze Onuaku, Syracuse (4.309)
12. Derrick Caracter, Louisville (4.275)
13. Earl Clark, Louisville (4.213)
14. Jeff Adrien, Connecticut (4.175)
15. Lazar Hayward, Marquette (4.155)
16. Da'Sean Butler, West Virginia (4.077)
17. Roy Hibbert, Georgetown (4.074)
18. Shane Clark, Villanova (4.031)
19. Dante Cunningham, Villanova (3.932)
20. John Garcia, Seton Hall (3.888)
21. Geoff McDermott, Providence (3.873)
22. Justin Burrell, St. John's (3.860)
23. Terrence Williams, Louisville (3.847)
24. Dar Tucker, DePaul (3.807)
25. DaJuan Summers, Georgetown (3.707)
26. D.J. Kennedy, St. John's (3.693)
27. Mac Koshwal, DePaul (3.683)
28. Karron Clarke, DePaul (3.640)
29. Stanley Robinson, Connecticut (3.598)
30. Adam Hrycaniuk, Cincinnati (3.523)
31. Randall Hanke, Providence (3.492)
32. John Williamson, Cincinnati (3.341)
33. Hamady N'Diaye, Rutgers (3.284)
34. Anthony Mason Jr., St. John's (3.281)
35. Zach Hillesland, Notre Dame (3.232)
36. Casiem Drummond, Villanova (3.182)
37. Ousmane Barro, Marquette (3.136)
38. Dan Fitzgerald, Marquette (3.096)
39. Dwight Burke, Marquette (3.013)
40. Rick Jackson, Syracuse (3.006)
41. Jamine Peterson, Providence (2.986)
42. Patrick Ewing Jr., Georgetown (2.945)
43. Jaron Griffin, Rutgers (2.938)
44. Antonio Pena, Villanova (2.805)
45. Wellington Smith, West Virginia (2.787)
46. Jonathan Kale, Providence (2.671)
47. Byron Joynes, Rutgers (2.663)
48. Luke Zeller, Notre Dame (2.601)
49. Tomas Jasiulionis, St. John's (2.599)
50. John Flowers, West Virginia (2.592)
51. Tyrell Biggs, Pittsburgh (2.589)
52. Orane Chin, South Florida (2.574)
t-53. Wesley Green, DePaul (2.535)
t-53. Rashad Bishop, Cincinnati (2.535)
55. Vernon Macklin, Georgetown (2.388)
56. Charles Burch, Providence (2.383)
57. Augustine Okosun, Seton Hall (2.356)
58. Curtis Kelly, Connecticut (2.313)
59. Kris Ongenaet, Syracuse (2.300)
60. Juan Palacios, Louisville (2.132)*- coming back from injury
61. Jamie Smalligan, West Virginia (2.087)
62. Terrance Farley, Louisville (2.030)
63. Marcus Sikes, Cincinnati (1.966)
64. Sean Evans, St. John's (1.858)
65. Matija Poscic, DePaul (1.662)
66. Alvin Mitchell, Cincinnati (1.245)
Frontcourt Player Rankings (adjusted for SOS according to kenpom.com):
1. Donte Greene, Syracuse (5.812)
2. Brian Laing, Seton Hall (5.668)
3. Sam Young, Pittsburgh (5.531)
4. Arinze Onuaku, Syracuse (5.297)
5. DeJuan Blair, Pittsburgh (5.275)
6. Luke Harangody, Notre Dame (5.253)
7. Joe Alexander, West Virginia (5.173)
8. Kentrell Gransberry, South Florida (5.109)
9. Derrick Caracter, Louisville (5.031)
10. Earl Clark, Louisville (4.970)
11. Hasheem Thabeet, Connecticut (4.903)
12. Geoff McDermott, Providence (4.797)
13. Jeff Adrien, Connecticut (4.743)
14. Dar Tucker, DePaul (4.734)
15. Da'Sean Butler, West Virginia (4.722)
16. Justin Burrell, St. John's (4.669)
17. Rob Kurz, Notre Dame (4.648)
18. J.R. Inman, Rutgers (4.635)
19. Lazar Hayward, Marquette (4.630)
20. Mac Koshwal, DePaul (4.610)
21. Terrence Williams, Louisville (4.603)
22. Shane Clark, Villanova (4.579)
23. Karron Clarke, DePaul (4.567)
24. John Garcia, Seton Hall (4.515)
25. D.J. Kennedy, St. John's (4.503)
26. Dante Cunningham, Villanova (4.480)
27. Randall Hanke, Providence (4.415)
28. Roy Hibbert, Georgetown (4.361)
29. Adam Hrycaniuk, Cincinnati (4.242)
30. Stanley Robinson, Connecticut (4.167)
31. Anthony Mason Jr., St. John's (4.090)
32. John Williamson, Cincinnati (4.060)
t-33. DaJuan Summers, Georgetown (3.994)
t-33. Rick Jackson, Syracuse (3.994)
35. Jamine Peterson, Providence (3.910)
36. Casiem Drummond, Villanova (3.730)
37. Ousmane Barro, Marquette (3.611)
38. Jonathan Kale, Providence (3.594)
39. Hamady N'Diaye, Rutgers (3.578)
40. Dan Fitzgerald, Marquette (3.571)
41. Zach Hillesland, Notre Dame (3.534)
42. Dwight Burke, Marquette (3.488)
43. Wesley Green, DePaul (3.462)
44. Tyrell Biggs, Pittsburgh (3.451)
45. Wellington Smith, West Virginia (3.432)
46. Tomas Jasiulionis, St. John's (3.408)
47. Antonio Pena, Villanova (3.353)
48. Charles Burch, Providence (3.307)
49. Kris Ongenaet, Syracuse (3.288)
50. Rashad Bishop, Cincinnati (3.253)
51. John Flowers, West Virginia (3.237)
52. Patrick Ewing Jr., Georgetown (3.232)
53. Jaron Griffin, Rutgers (3.231)
54. Orane Chin, South Florida (3.146)
55. Augustine Okosun, Seton Hall (2.983)
56. Byron Joynes, Rutgers (2.956)
57. Luke Zeller, Notre Dame (2.903)
58. Juan Palacios, Louisville (2.889)*- coming back from injury
59. Curtis Kelly, Connecticut (2.882)
60. Terrance Farley, Louisville (2.786)
61. Jamie Smalligan, West Virginia (2.732)
62. Marcus Sikes, Cincinnati (2.685)
63. Vernon Macklin, Georgetown (2.676)
64. Sean Evans, St. John's (2.667)
65. Matija Poscic, DePaul (2.588)
66. Alvin Mitchell, Cincinnati (1.964)
Team Frontcourt Rankings (raw):
1. Pittsburgh (3.890)
2. Notre Dame (3.782)
3. Seton Hall (3.761)
4. Syracuse (3.610)
5. Connecticut (3.605)
6. South Florida (3.555)
7. Villanova (3.487)
8. Marquette (3.350)
9. Rutgers (3.307)
10. Louisville (3.299)
11. Georgetown (3.278)
12. West Virginia (3.214)
13. Providence (3.081)
14. DePaul (3.065)
15. St. John's (3.058)
16. Cincinnati (2.522)
Team Frontcourt Rankings (adjusted for SOS):
1. Pittsburgh (4.752)
2. Syracuse (4.598)
3. Seton Hall (4.389)
4. Connecticut (4.174)
5. South Florida (4.127)
6. Notre Dame (4.084)
7. Louisville (4.056)
8. Villanova (4.036)
9. Providence (4.005)
10. DePaul (3.992)
11. St. John's (3.867)
12. West Virginia (3.859)
13. Marquette (3.825)
14. Rutgers (3.600)
15. Georgetown (3.566)
16. Cincinnati (3.241)
posted by Anonymous @ 10:31 PM
4 comments
4 Comments:
Not sure how you came to these weightings, but only 4% for steals? That's a forced change of possession, which seems more valuable than a rebound (17%), which occurs only when possession is neutral.
Based on that reasoning, I would weight steals exactly twice that of rebounds. Perhaps that is why Paul Gause of Seton Hall is so valuable to Seton Hall and so vexing to opposing coaches, yet ranked only 40th in your rankings.
Percentages are weighted differently for the frontcourt. Steals are 10% for backcourt players. The weightings are my opinion (what I look for in a good guard or frontcourt player).
I'm a Seton Hall fan so I know all about Paul Gause. Paul is ranked 40th because he averages 8.4 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 2.5 apg, 1.5 to/g, and shoots only 34% from the field and 26% from 3. That's why he's lower on the list. He's great at steals (one of the best I've ever seen), but that is only one part of the game.
More so, Paul is a role player. His role is to create turnovers with pressure and steals, distribute the ball, and occasionally score. While that is great and it certainly is needed because it fits into Seton Hall's style of play, he is not one of the overall outstanding guards in the conference. Those guards are ranked high in most statistical categories.
OK, your points about Gause are good, and perhaps your ratings turn out correct.
But it still seems to me (IMHO, I may be missing something) that you can strip off most everything when comparing the value of rebounds vs. steals. And you wind up with the difference that one is a forced possession change and one is a neutral possession capture. That 2x value for steals is regardless of player position. (It's up to the coach to get the right mix of players--a steal by a forward without allowing a shot attempt is still better than a defensive rebound after a shot attempt.)
Anyway, this stuff is fascinating. Using possessions and avg. points per possession (which is approximately 1 point per possession in the NBA), it may be possible to come up with objective measures in some categories (or across categories, like this 2x factor [if it holds up under scrutiny]).
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