ACC Preview: #4 Duke Blue Devils

Projected Starters
C-Josh McRoberts 6'10 240 SO- 8.7ppg 5.3rpg 1.5apg 61%FG 66%FT
PF-Lance Thomas 6'9 210 FR- Top 25 recruit
SF-Gerald Henderson 6'5 205 FR- Top 10 recruit
SG-DeMarcus Nelson 6'3 195 JR- 7.1ppg 3.4rpg 45%FG 41%3pt
PG-Greg Paulus 6'1 190 SO- 6.7ppg 5.2apg 37%FG 31%3pt

Background
Coach K will be dealing with his youngest team in years this season. With the loss of central players like Redick, Williams and Dockery, Duke will go into this season with differed expectations, as it appears their archrival North Carolina might run away with the league title. Now it’s up to the usual favorites to play underdog and finally get past that Sweet 16 obstacle. Maybe this young group is just the formula.

Premiere Players
The two guys that must step into enormous roles for Duke who served as role players last year are center Josh McRoberts and point guard Greg Paulus. McRoberts, a projected lottery pick this past summer, decided to return to Duke to polish his game and become the central player in the offense. With the departure of Shelden Williams, the touches for McRoberts will lead the team easily. He contains a post game that is strong along the baseline and he can finish in the face of any defender. His mid-range game came along nicely for Duke last year. He also has lesser known strengths, such as being a very competent ball handler and perimeter player, sometimes even better than his point guard Greg Paulus. At times Paulus made utterly foolish turnovers in growing pain games vs. North Carolina and Georgetown, but those experiences will make him that much better this year. Yet when you dissect every Duke game, Paulus is an exceptional passer with gifted court vision and a sense for Coach K’s offense. Oh by the way, he led the ACC in assists in 2005-06. The all-time leading scorer in California high school basketball history, DeMarcus Nelson, will have to step up his game in a big way for Duke to win this conference. We all know DeMarcus can attack the basket and fill up the box score with layups and mid-range jumpers, but can he be a threat from deep? And will Coach K be able to rely on Nelson handling the ball in tight situations?

Role Players
Instead of the previous two sophomores, a variety of freshmen will be role players for Duke this season. A possible starter could be Lance Thomas, a typical grinder who plays strong defense, can rebound and has superb athleticism. He’s strong in the post at 6’9 and will work well with McRoberts. Gerald Henderson may also start for Coach K. He is the #1 recruit entering Durham this season and will have many opportunities early. Henderson is my kind of player- always moving without the ball, moving to the post for easy layups, tiring defenders, very athletic, lethal mid-range shooter. Brian Zoubek may start for Duke, another freshman in the post with strong post capabilities. He reminds me of Paul Davis in many ways. Jon Scheyer is Mr. Illinois and comes to Duke with outstanding outside shooting. We’ll see if Coach K gets him any playing time this year, or designates those minutes for guys like Jamal Boykin and Martynas Pocious.

Final Thoughts
Duke, Georgia Tech and Boston College are practically identical at the 2-3-4 slots, so Duke is in no way a lock for second. They’ve been overrated in the preseason polls. Duke has an extremely young roster that may need to develop chemistry as the season progresses, but it’s tough to discount all of this talent. McRoberts and Paulus have all the hype in the world, almost too much, and I don’t feel they’ll be all-ACC performers, but they’ll do enough for Duke to finish 11-5.

Schedule and Projection
11/12 vs. Columbia- W
11/13 vs. UC-Davis (likely)- W
11/16 vs. UNC-Greensboro- W
11/20 (N) vs. Stanford (likely)- W
11/21 (N) vs. Marquette (likely)- W
11/25 vs. Davidson- W
11/28 vs. Indiana- W
12/2 vs. Georgetown- L
12/6 vs. Holy Cross- W
12/9 vs. George Mason- W
12/19 vs. Kent State- W
12/21 (N) vs. Gonzaga- W
12/31 vs. San Jose State- W
1/2 vs. Temple- W
1/6 vs. Virginia Tech- W
1/10 @ Georgia Tech- L
1/14 @ Miami- W
1/18 vs. Wake Forest- W
1/20 @ NC State- W
1/25 vs. Clemson- W
1/28 vs. Boston College- L
2/1 @ Virginia- L
2/4 vs. Florida State- W
2/7 vs. North Carolina- W
2/11 @ Maryland- W
2/14 @ Boston College- L
2/18 vs. Georgia Tech- W
2/22 @ Clemson- L
2/25 @ St. John’s- L
2/28 vs. Maryland- W
3/4 @ North Carolina- L

Projected Record: 24-7 (11-5)