ACC Preview: #12 NC State Wolfpack

Projected Starting Lineup
C-Ben McCauley 6'9 235 SO- 2.1ppg 1.0rpg 46%FG 68%FT
PF-Brandon Costner 6'8 230 SO- Played sparingly
SF-Gavin Grant 6'7 210 JR- 8.3ppg 4.7rpg 2.3apg 45%FG 20%3pt
SG-Courtney Fells 6'5 195 SO- 2.0ppg 1.5rpg 35%FG 22%3pt
PG-Engin Atsur 6'4 200 SR- 10.8ppg 3.4apg 44%FG 40%3pt

Background
NC State will have to endure a raucous transition season featuring a new coach in Sidney Lowe and a core group of young, inexperienced players in 2006-07. Top scorers Cedric Simmons, Cameron Bennerman and Ilian Evtimov are gone, as well as another frontcourt scorer, Andrew Brackman, who is pursuing a baseball career. It’s going to take a good 3-4 years for Lowe to bring back the Wolfpack to a Sweet 16 contender like they were in 2005, but he’ll have an opportunity to start fresh and build on this lacking support system Herb Sendek left him with. NC State needs some major four-star recruits in the next two recruiting seasons to get back to the upper tier of the ACC.

Premium Players
Engin Atsur is NC State’s leading returning scorer heading into this season, a fact which has to make Coach Lowe shudder. Atsur has decent three-point range and rarely makes a mistake in terms of ball-handling and controlling the slow-down, conservative pace of the Wolfpack. Unfortunately, Lowe prefers a more up-tempo style of play, which will be an obvious learning adjustment for Atsur early in the year. Atsur still is the furthest thing from spectacular, lacks overall athleticism, and his overall rebounding and passing skills are barely adequate for a player looking to lead a struggling program. The other player to watch on NC State is the talented small forward Gavin Grant. I have Grant on my preseason all-ACC third team as I’m really expecting him to become the most feared weapon on this basketball team. He’s overly athletic, is an exceptional passer and can finish strong in the lane at his own will. Even at 6’7, Grant may switch over to the 2-guard for occasional possessions to get the ball in his hands more frequently.

Role Players
The Wolfpack are pretty thin after Atsur and Grant. Courtney Fells is slotted as the second guard opposite Atsur in the offense, but that may change at any point during the season as Fells is very one-dimensional and practically invisible if his jump shot isn’t finding the net. Players like Chris McCoy and Trevor Ferguson are the next options of the bench in a more defensive-oriented stage in the game. In the frontcourt, look for Lowe to start Brandon Costner and Kevin McCauley. Costner was highly recruited before he chose the Wolfpack, and could be a player that blossoms in his second season in college. His strong point is rebounding, but Costner could mold into a poor man’s Josh McRoberts if this kid develops a strong post game. McCauley is, surprisingly, a lethal shooter but lacks a ferocious post game of any means, and the inexperienced, dire bench options don’t serve as much of a backup plan. Looks like NC State will struggle mightily against team who loves to crash the boards. They’ll be out-rebounded in almost every ACC contest.

Final Thoughts
This year will be haunting to watch for NC State fans so accustomed to consistently contending every season. I see this years Wolfpack being a cellar dweller right from the beginning in the tough ACC with a group that lacks any impact shooters, talented post players or experience. The NIT will be a stretch.

Schedule and Prediction
11/10 vs. Wofford- W
11/17 vs. Delaware State- W
11/21 vs. Valparaiso- W
11/24 vs. Gardner Webb- W
11/27 vs. Michigan- L
12/3 @ Virginia- L
12/6 @ West Virginia- L
12/9 vs. Savannah State- W
12/16 vs. Mount St. Mary’s- W
12/20 vs. Alabama- L
12/23 @ Cincinnati- L
12/28 vs. East Carolina- W
12/30 vs. UNC-Wilmington- L
1/2 vs. UNC-Greensboro- W
1/6 vs. Boston College- L
1/9 vs. Clemson- W
1/13 @ Wake Forest- L
1/20 vs. Duke- L
1/24 vs. Virginia- L
1/31 @ Virginia Tech- L
2/3 vs. North Carolina- L
2/6 @ Georgia Tech- L
2/10 @ Miami- L
2/14 vs. Maryland- L
2/18 vs. Virginia Tech- W
2/21 @ North Carolina- L
2/24 @ Florida State- L
2/28 vs. Wake Forest- W
3/3 @ Maryland- L

Predicted Record: 11-18 (3-13)