2006-2007 Big East Preview: #11

#11- Providence Friars

Last season: 12-15 (5-11).
Coach: Tim Welsh (9th year). 127-114 at Providence.

Providence appears to be the popular surprise team in all the Big East preseason selections. Just yesterday, the 16 Big East coaches picked the Friars to finish 10th in the league. While the preseason coaches poll is usually a joke, (see Marquette 4th, West Virginia 12th, Seton Hall 15th) I basically agree with Providence's ranking. Tim Welsh's team returns four starters, losing only point guard Donnie McGrath. While the loss of McGrath will be felt, I feel Providence has enough talent on the roster to compete night in and night out. Providence's go to guy will be guard Sharaud Curry. (11.9 ppg last season) Curry will need to take over for McGrath, and he definitely has the talent to do so. He's quick, athletic, and has the ability to penetrate the defense. Only a sophomore, Curry has a very bright three years ahead of him at Providence. Also returning for PC is sophomore forward Geoff McDermott who I absolutely love. I think McDermott is going to have a huge year for the Friars and surprise many around the nation.

In the frontcourt, Providence returns Herbert Hill and Randall Hanke. Both of these players will be able to compete based on their size alone. It remains to be seen, however, if Hanke can come close to his effort last year in which he led the nation in field goal percentage. Off the bench this year will be freshman Brian McKenzie who drew a lot of high major interest late in his recruiting. I think Welsh picked up a solid four year player in McKenzie.

For Providence to win games this year, they must improve their defense. They gave up 74.7 ppg last year and allowed opponents to shoot 44% from the floor. This simply won't get it done in the Big East, or any other major conference for that matter. Providence has three very difficult non-conference games, a home date with Boston College and two games at both Florida schools in December. Winning one of those would be very good in my opinion. In the conference portion, they have a very easy home slate with five very winnable games. They also entertain Marquette, Villanova, and Syracuse at the Dunkin Donuts Center. (undergoing a three year $62 million renovation) An upset in any one of those games would be a success for the Friars. In the end, I expect Providence to be very competitive and to pull an upset or two. However, the Big East road schedule is what will hurt them in the end as you will see below. Anything short of a bid to the NIT will be a failure for Providence, something that just might cost Welsh his job. I could see Providence winning more than the 6 Big East games I have them winning, but there are a lot of games that could go either way.

Schedule and predictions:

11/14 vs. Fairleigh Dickinson- W
11/18 vs. Brown- W
11/22 vs. Boston College- L
11/26 vs. George Washington- W
11/28 vs. Columbia- W
12/2 vs. Rhode Island- W
12/4 vs. Fairfield- W
12/6 @ Florida- L
12/9 vs. Maine- W
12/19 vs. Holy Cross- W
12/22 vs. Harvard- W
12/29 @ Florida State- L
1/2 vs. Longwood- W
1/4 vs. Marquette- L
1/6 vs. Seton Hall- W
1/13 @ Louisville- L
1/17 @ Seton Hall- L
1/20 vs. Rutgers- W
1/23 vs. Villanova- L
1/27 @ Connecticut- L
2/3 @ Marquette- L
2/6 vs. Cincinnati- W
2/10 @ Pittsburgh- L
2/15 @ Notre Dame- L
2/17 vs. St. John's- W
2/20 vs. West Virginia- W
2/24 vs. Syracuse- L
2/28 @ South Florida- W
3/4 @ St. John's- L

Projected record: 16-13 (6-10).
Postseason: NIT, out first round.